Who Will be the Next Indonesian President With the Feb Elections Coming-up, and What Does It Mean For It and Its Neighbours?
Who will be the next Indonesian President with the Feb Elections coming up and what does it mean for it and its neighbours?
08/02/2024
As the 14th of February approaches, Indonesians are gearing up to head to the polls. They will choose their next president, succeeding President Joko Widodo, who is scheduled to leave office in October.
The leading candidates are Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto with running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, followed by Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar, and Ganjar Pranowo with Mahfud MD.
Who exactly are the candidates and what are their economic and political stances?
Prabowo Subianto
Prabowo Subianto, a 72-year-old former special forces commander, is making his third presidential run, having lost to Joko Widodo in 2014 and 2019. Despite facing allegations related to the abductions of democracy activists in the 1990s, which he denies, Prabowo has considerable public support and elite backing.
Prabowo’s running mate is Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the mayor of Solo and President Jokowi’s eldest son. Despite being only 36 years old and the minimum age to run being 40, an Indonesian court controversially made an exception, permitting Raka to participate in the election.
Their campaign promises include continuing the development of Nusantara, the new capital, enhancing the maritime sector, increasing the state revenue-to-GDP ratio to 23%, establishing a state revenue agency, raising the non-taxable income threshold, eradicating extreme poverty within two years of office, gradually increasing the defense budget and modernizing the military, and achieving self-sufficiency in food, energy, and water.
Anies Baswedan
Anies Baswedan, a former Jakarta governor and academic, is known for his widespread popularity. He served as the Governor of Jakarta between 2017 and 2022, a role that’s also been held by President Joko Widodo, which is often seen as a stepping stone to the presidency. In addition to his political career, Anies is recognized for his academic contributions. His running mate is Muhaimin Iskandar, chairman of Indonesia’s largest Islamic party.
Anies aims for a 5.5% to 6.5% economic growth rate from 2025 to 2029, plans to create 15 million jobs, and wants to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio from 10.4% in 2022 to 13-16% by 2029. Anies intends to control inflation within 2 to 3% and promises to build 2 million new affordable houses.
Ganjar Pranowo
Ganjar Pranowo, affiliated with the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle and former governor of Central Java, is a prominent presidential candidate, closely following Prabowo in polls. With Mahfud MD, the respected coordinating security affairs minister as his running mate, Ganjar appeals to ordinary Indonesians due to his non-elite, humble background and is popular among younger voters through social media.
He pledges to continue President Widodo’s initiatives, aims for a 7% economic growth, and promises to create 17 million new jobs. Additionally, Ganjar intends to expedite the new capital’s construction, modernize military hardware, and expand social welfare coverage.
Capital Relocation
Indonesia intends to transfer its capital from Jakarta to Nusantara, situated in Kalimantan, through an ambitious project estimated to exceed $30 billion in costs. Presidential candidates Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto have expressed unwavering support for Nusantara’s construction, while Anies Baswedan has voiced objections to the proposed smart city.
Foreign Policy
Ganjar prioritizes an inward-looking foreign policy, emphasizing its role in attracting foreign investment for economic development and job creation. He proposes a pragmatic adjustment in ASEAN’s decision-making process, advocating for the removal of unanimous decisions and suggesting an “interim agreement” for the South China Sea dispute.
On the other hand, Prabowo vows to continue the current president’s foreign policy, highlighting resource nationalism and industrial down-streaming.
His “good neighbor policy” prioritizes strong ties with neighboring countries, steering clear of alignment with major power blocs.
Anies, in contrast, adopts a more value-based foreign policy, focusing on principles such as human life, justice, and environmental stewardship to enhance Indonesia’s global credibility. He critiques the current president’s approach, aiming to position Indonesia as an “agenda-setter” in international initiatives while maintaining a consistent values-based engagement with all nations.
Despite their nuanced differences, all candidates share a commitment to Indonesia’s foundational “free and active” foreign policy, emphasizing global issue resolution without aligning with geopolitical blocs.
The Situation in Palestine
The Israel-Hamas conflict is significant for Indonesia, which supports a two-state solution and has seen protests against Israel. All presidential candidates back Palestinian rights:
Prabowo Subianto has vocally supported Palestinian independence, Anies Baswedan aims to visit Palestinian territories if elected, and Ganjar Pranowo recently opposed Israel’s participation in 2023 FIFA U-20 World Cup, causing Indonesia to lose hosting rights.
Who is going to win?
To secure victory on February 14, a candidate needs at least 51% of the votes. Various polling institutions have forecast that the frontrunner, Prabowo, will likely win the first round. In case no candidate secures 50% on February 14, there will be a second round scheduled for June 26 – a scenario very likely to happen.
Emerhub Predictions
Julia Anggraini (Account Executive, Jakarta)
“Anies and Prabowo are likely to tie. People might lean towards Prabowo due to Jokowi’s son as his Vice President candidate, possibly expecting the continuation of ongoing projects like the new capital city. Nevertheless, it appears there will be a second round of elections this time.”
Harley Fatoni (Head of Operations, Jakarta)
“The election is expected to unfold in two rounds. Anies and Muhaimin gather academic and Muslim faction support, while Prabowo and Gibran attract investors and those favoring continuity. Essentially, Anies represents change, and Prabowo embodies continuous improvement in democracy.”
Nicko Karyanto (HR Generalist, Bali)
“Given the current polling trends, the race for Indonesia’s presidency appears to be heading for a tight finish. I’m inclined to think that Anies Baswedan might just pull off an unexpected victory in the second round, leveraging his strong debate performances and growing public support for change. It’s a close call, but Anies could outperform expectations when it matters most.”
