I Predict Iran Will Win.
Israel and the United States Needed a Quick Victory. They Failed. Now the Long War Begins.
By Jamie McIntyre
The unfolding war between Iran and the Israel–United States alliance may already have passed its most decisive moment.
And the reality many in the West do not want to confront is this: if Israel and the United States did not win quickly, their chances diminish with every passing week.
Their military doctrine relies on exactly that.
The Shock-and-Awe Doctrine
For decades, Western military strategy has depended on overwhelming force early in a conflict.
The playbook is familiar:
• Massive air campaigns
• Precision strikes on leadership and infrastructure
• Rapid destruction of command systems
• Collapse of the opponent’s ability to fight
This strategy worked in Iraq in 2003 and during numerous smaller conflicts.
But Iran is not Iraq.
Iran’s military doctrine is closer to that of Russia and China: a long-game strategy built on endurance, asymmetric warfare, and sustained pressure.
And that difference matters.
The War Is Becoming a Battle of Attrition
Military analysts increasingly describe the current confrontation as a “salvo competition”, where the outcome could depend on which side runs out of missiles or interceptors first.
Iran has focused heavily on:
• ballistic missiles
• drones produced cheaply in large numbers
• regional proxy networks
• long-range asymmetric pressure
Recent Iranian drone and missile attacks have targeted not only Israel but also regional infrastructure and U.S. bases across the Gulf.
These attacks are designed less to win quickly and more to wear down defensive systems and stretch Western supply chains.
Israel and the U.S. Went for the Knockout
The opening phase of the conflict saw a massive coordinated strike by Israel and the United States against Iranian targets across the country.
Hundreds of sites were reportedly hit in an effort to cripple Iran’s military infrastructure and nuclear facilities.
But the central question remains:
Did those strikes achieve decisive victory?
So far, the answer appears to be no.
Iran has continued launching retaliatory attacks across the region, and the conflict has already spread into multiple countries and strategic locations such as the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical oil chokepoints in the world.
The Political Consequences Could Be Severe
Wars are not only decided on battlefields. They are decided politically.
If the conflict drags on:
• economic pressure will rise
• energy markets will destabilize
• domestic political support may weaken
In the United States, prolonged wars historically erode political support for leadership.
In Israel, extended conflict often reshapes political leadership and security policy.
If this war becomes prolonged and costly, the political consequences for both Washington and Tel Aviv could be dramatic.
A Wider Global Contest
Many analysts now view the conflict as part of a broader geopolitical shift.
The world is moving from a unipolar system dominated by Western powers toward a multipolar system involving rising blocs such as BRICS.
That transition is already visible in:
• global trade realignments
• alternative financial systems
• expanding military partnerships
A prolonged Middle East war could accelerate that shift.
My Prediction
Israel and the United States needed a fast victory.
They needed Iran neutralized quickly.
That did not happen.
Instead, the conflict risks becoming a long war of attrition, a type of conflict Iran has spent decades preparing for.
History shows that when wars become long, costly, and unpredictable, political consequences follow.
And when great powers misjudge the duration of a conflict, the results can reshape the global balance of power.
The opening phase of this war may already be over.
The question now is who can endure the longest.
Original source: https://x.com/jamiemcintyre21/status/2029190520292163688