Kevin McCarthy Predicts GOP will Lose House Majority
By Mia McCarthy
“What are the three things Republicans will do if they win the majority?” the former speaker asked. “I can’t tell you what that is.”
Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy predicted Republicans will lose the House in two weeks, citing historical midterm trends while also criticizing the sitting GOP leadership for how they’ve managed the chamber.
“In the last 100 years, all off-year elections, whoever is the party in power has the White House, has lost seats, and it’s only a few seats for the majority,” McCarthy said in an interview with Bloomberg TV Thursday.
Democrats, he added, will “get a majority” in the House: “I’m not quite sure how big it is, but they will probably win the majority.”
The former speaker, who ushered in the current GOP House majority in 2022 but only led the conference for less than a year before being booted from the speakership, went on to fault his own party for giving the election away.
“It’s not that the Democrats are going to win this election,” he said. “Republicans are going to lose it.”
He pointed to the skimpy House legislative calendar as a factor. Speaker Mike Johnson and his deputies have routinely canceled scheduled session days amid member revolts that have undermined his grip on the razor-thin majority.
“You’re only given 24 months in a majority to manage it. They were in the fewest amount of days. They let the Democrats dictate,” McCarthy said. “You have to give a reason why to win. What are the three things Republicans will do if they win the majority? I can’t tell you what that is.”
Still, McCarthy cautioned that if Democrats win the House, it won’t be because they have laid out their own agenda and warned that he believes that Democrats will face their own hurdles.
“Democrats are not popular. They haven’t laid out an agenda on what they’ll do,” McCarthy said. “So they’ll have a really hard time governing in the next Congress.”
7 HOURS AGO
Elon Musk pours another $76 million into boosting Republicans
By Jessica Piper
The additional funds bring his total spending this cycle to $442 million.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk gave another $76 million to boost Republicans in the first two weeks of October, bringing his total giving this cycle to more than $442 million.
The additional funds, which Musk gave to his super PAC, America PAC, make the group one of the biggest super PACs this cycle. America PAC has already spent tens of millions of dollars on digital advertising, mailers and text messages as it targets competitive House and Senate races across the country.
Musk — the world’s wealthiest man — is by far the biggest single donor this cycle, with his political giving this year far exceeding even the roughly $290 million he spent in 2024. There is no precedent in modern American history for any donor spending as much as he has.
While the Tesla CEO and former DOGE lead has spent significantly to help Republicans, he has not been joining GOP candidates on the campaign trail this fall like he had in the past. Republicans privately acknowledged Musk could be politically toxic after the party lost a major Wisconsin judicial race in the spring of 2025 where Musk had become both the biggest funder and a campaign issue.
Still, Musk’s money has been instrumental for Republicans this fall. His earlier giving this cycle includes $158 million for Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, which was transferred to a super PAC boosting Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is locked in a tight Senate race against Democrat James Talarico. Democrats have looked to make his money a campaign issue: Talarico recently responded to an attack from Musk on the Musk-owned X social media site by saying that there was “deeply wrong with a political system that allows one trillionaire to buy his own personal U.S. Senator.”
Musk has also given to House Republicans’ super PAC arm, President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC, and a group seeking to repeal Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, along with a smattering of GOP candidates.
8 HOURS AGO
Senate Democrats’ campaign arm takes out $15M loan
By Jessica Piper
The loan, reported in a Thursday FEC filing, follows a similar move from Senate Republicans last month.
Senate Democrats have taken out a $15 million loan as they hope to expand their map in the final days before the midterms.
The party’s campaign arm took out the loan earlier this month, according to a report submitted Thursday to the Federal Election Commission.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spent $32 million in the first two weeks of October, with half of those funds going toward coordinated expenditures in 10 states. That includes: $4.7 million Ohio; more than $1 million in each of Iowa, Michigan, Kansas, Alaska and Maine; and additional funds in Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire.
The committee reported just over $20 million cash on hand as of Oct. 14, according to its FEC report.
Its GOP counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, previously took out $20 million in loans in September, according to an FEC report filed earlier this week. The DSCC has slightly trailed the NRSC in fundraising for most of the cycle, but Democratic candidates have largely outraised GOP ones across the map — in some cases, several times over.
Democrats’ candidate fundraising advantage has helped offset the GOP’s massive super PAC cash advantage since candidates, and parties working with them, get better rates for broadcast ads.
It’s not unusual for party committees to take out loans late in an election cycle to power last-minute spending. In 2024, the DSCC took out $20 million in loans.
“In the face of being outspent by GOP megadonors, Senate Democrats remain in the best position yet to win the majority, after we strategically and effectively expanded the map and sent Republicans scrambling to play defense in red states everywhere,” DSCC spokesperson Maeve Coyle said in a statement. “We will continue to use every tool at our disposal and we will win in November.”
9 HOURS AGO
Democrats’ top Senate super PAC has raised $354M this year
By Andrew Howard
The figure is a record for the group and includes roughly $88 million in the first two weeks of October.
Democrats’ top Senate-focused super PAC will report raising $354 million through Oct. 14 — including roughly $88 million in the first two weeks of the month— as Democrats race to seize control of the upper chamber in the election’s closing weeks.
Senate Majority PAC shared their fundraising totals, which are higher than any previous cycle, with POLITICO ahead of a Federal Election Commission deadline later Thursday. The super PAC had $32.7 million in the bank as of Oct. 14.
“This is already the strongest cycle in Senate Majority PAC’s history, and it’s arriving exactly when it counts,” SMP spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement. “We’re on the air across the battleground through Election Day, and every dollar is going toward beating price-gouging Republicans and winning back the Senate.”
That’s more than the $306 million SMP raised in the 2024 campaign cycle, according to FEC filings, its previous high.
SMP is still being outraised by the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP’s top Senate super PAC, in large part thanks to billionaire Elon Musk and other Republican megadonors. Musk gave $158 million to SLF in the third quarter, according to its most recent FEC report, and the super PAC in turn sent that money to Texas’ Senate race in order to boost the scandal-plagued GOP nominee Ken Paxton.
As of Sept. 30, SLF had raised more than $423 million for the cycle.
Democrats have been able to offset much of Republicans’ super PAC cash advantage on the airwaves because of stronger candidate fundraising.
But Republicans still have the advantage of a favorable map — and more outside money — as they hope to maintain control of at least one chamber of Congress next month.
15 HOURS AGO
GOP senator questions Elon Musk’s influence over military assets
By Jordain Carney
Sen. Kevin Cramer received a briefing Thursday on the recent Starshield slowdown in Ukraine.
North Dakota Sen. Kevin Cramer said Thursday that he had concerns about Elon Musk’s influence over national security matters after Ukraine was blindsided by a disruption of a satellite communications service developed by Musk’s SpaceX.
“We’re putting too many eggs in one company’s basket when it comes to our space assets,” the Republican member of the Armed Services Committee said. He added about Musk that he was concerned about the power of “one individual and one company over America’s ability to protect the domain of space, which is a war-fighting domain.”
Cramer received a briefing Thursday from Air Force Secretary Troy Meink that he said focused on getting an update on Starshield — a military product based on SpaceX’s Starlink technology. Cramer told reporters before the briefing that he wanted Congress and the Pentagon to “pour a lot of resources … into making sure there’s lots of competition both for satellite production and satellite launch.”
“I’m uncomfortable with the potential vendor lock in space, and I think the events of the last couple of weeks have demonstrated greater concern, even than just simply cost,” Cramer said.
Musk has been under days of scrutiny — including fresh pledges by Democrats to investigate him next year — after the Wall Street Journal reported that he ordered the recent slowdown in Starshield capabilities over the Russia-Ukraine war theater.
Cramer, asked about the Journal reporting after the closed-door briefing, said that he wasn’t sure if Musk ordered the slowdown and that the “culpability of multiple people … was left somewhat loose.”
“By that I mean, discussions with the president before, discussions with the president after. … Obviously I don’t think it could have possibly happened without Elon Musk’s knowledge, whether or not you know how supportive he was one way or the other,” Cramer said.
Cramer added that he believed there could have been a broad misunderstanding within the U.S. government and within SpaceX about how reliant Ukraine was on the satellite technology. But he said it was incumbent that the operation of satellite technology like Starshield must “be exclusively with the authority of the United States government.”
“There are certain things the government has to do that can’t be so dependent on others,” Cramer said. “And fighting wars is one of those things.”
15 HOURS AGO
Ways and Means Democrats ask Treasury about delayed IRS data
By BRIAN FALER
Ten House tax writers led by Rep. Mike Thompson want to know why detailed tax-filing data has been held back for months.
Rep. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.), the top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Tax Subcommittee, and nine of his fellow tax writers are demanding the Treasury Department explain why it is delaying the release of tax-filing data showing how Republicans’ 2025 tax cuts affected millions of people’s returns.
In a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the lawmakers point to a recent POLITICO report about how the agency was holding up a slew of data normally released in the wake of tax season that shows which income groups claimed which tax break and how much they paid in tax, among other things.
The IRS publishes weekly top-line statistics during the tax-filing season listing how many returns it processed, how many refunds it issued and how much money taxpayers are getting back.
But the data Thompson and others are waiting on is far more detailed. It shows things like the uptake of individual provisions in the tax code as well breakdowns of how much more people in different income groups reported earning, and how many taxpayers still owed money to the IRS at the time of filing.
Critics say the Treasury Department doesn’t have the legal authority to block the release of the data.
“Congressional Republicans have spent months bragging about their tax law, but now that it’s time to show Americans who is actually benefiting, the Administration is keeping the numbers hidden,” Thompson wrote. “Congress and the public deserve the data, whether or not they make for a flattering press release.”
In an email, an administration official said: “The October 15 deadline marked the end of filing season for taxpayers who requested extensions.”
“The IRS is preparing data that captures the full scope of this past filing season and reflects recent changes to the tax system.”
18 HOURS AGO
Top Senate Finance Democrat maps out clean energy plan
By Kelsey Brugger
Sen. Ron Wyden wants to bring back a program he says new data proves was wildly successful.
The top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee wants to revive a clean energy tax credit program he argues was a booming success — and says he has the receipts to prove it.
Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon is releasing a new report of IRS data, shared first with POLITICO, showing that, in the first two years of the Democrats’ 2022 climate law, nearly $2.5 billion in direct payments went directly to schools and other tax-exempt entities to cover electric school buses, rooftop solar, electric vehicles and more.
Wyden said in a press release the numbers prove there is “massive demand” for “any and all” programs that lower energy costs and rebuild aging infrastructure, after Republicans gutted many of these wind and solar tax credits in their tax and spending megalaw last summer.
“When Democrats have a trifecta of power, reinstating the wind and solar tax credits and bolstering the Direct Pay Program will be a top priority to help bring an end to Trump’s energy crisis,” said Wyden, who is poised to take back the Finance gavel if control of the Senate flips in the midterms.
The report, prepared by Democratic staff for the committee, argues the current “energy crisis,” where Americans’ utility bills are rising, was manufactured by Republicans and the direct result of the Trump administration’s clean energy incentive rollbacks.
Wyden said he would revive the solar and wind tax credits if given the chance to chair the Finance Committee again, plus boost what’s known as the Direct Pay Program, which schools and tax exempt entities can use on rooftop solar, electric vehicle purchases, heat pumps and more.
“If we’re back in the majority — and I think we will — I will be introducing that bill [to restore] the clean energy tax credits that had billions of dollars in the market in the first couple of years,” Wyden said in an interview last month regarding his plans. “I’ll be introducing that right away.”
Wyden, who has led his party on the Finance Committee since 2015, wrote the bulk of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act’s climate and clean energy provisions.
19 HOURS AGO
Banks and crypto are at war — except on the campaign trail
By JASPER GOODMAN and AIDEN REITER
The two rival industries are spending millions to help elect many of the same candidates.
Banks and cryptocurrency companies have spent much of the last year feuding over financial policy in Washington. But when it comes to electing the lawmakers who write their rules, the two industries are often on the same side.
A new political spending operation established by giant Wall Street banks has poured more than $7.3 million into efforts to back industry-friendly incumbents across 15 races around the country, according to data compiled by AdImpact. In almost half of those contests, crypto super PACs are spending to back the same candidate.
Leading beneficiaries of the overlap include Nebraska GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts, along with Reps. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) and Janelle Bynum (D-Ore.).
The alignment is striking given that the Wall Street operation was widely seen as a way for big banks to counter the crypto industry’s aggressive approach to political spending. Set up last year by the Financial Services Forum, a trade association representing the largest U.S. banks, the American Growth Alliance is a so-called dark money nonprofit that doesn’t have to disclose its donors or most of its spending to the Federal Election Commission.
The overlap illustrates that both industries are vying for influence among a relatively small group of members who are key players on financial services policy — even as they clash over the policies those members should pursue.
“They’re both trying to win the favor of the same candidates,” said Brendan Glavin, director of insights at OpenSecrets, which tracks political spending.
All seven lawmakers who are benefiting from spending by both industries sit on the House Financial Services or Senate Banking committees, which oversee crypto and banking policy.
Ricketts is the leading beneficiary of the spending overlap. The banking industry has plowed more than $1.4 million into ads supporting the lawmaker, according to AdImpact — more than any other race it is spending on. A crypto super PAC affiliated with the group Fairshake has shelled out more than $10.8 million to help him.
Ricketts voted for an industry-friendly crypto bill in the Senate this year. His opponent, independent candidate Dan Osborn, has taken aim at credit card swipe fees on the campaign trail and endorsed a lightning rod bill known as the Credit Card Competition Act that is loathed by banks.
Huizenga and Bynum, who both represent competitive districts, are poised to benefit from more than $1 million in spending from each industry.
A spokesperson for Bynum said in a statement that the spending “shows nobody buys her vote.”
“She has donations from across the country from a wide variety of donors while she represents a frontline district with Oregonians of all political views and income levels,” spokesperson Koray Rosati said.
The campaigns of the other candidates who have benefited from the spending did not respond to requests for comment. The Financial Services Forum and Fairshake declined to comment.
19 HOURS AGO
Capitol agenda: Some Republicans get bipartisan curious
By Calen Razor
A new POLITICO poll shows that 66% of Republican voters this midterm want a Democratic House to find common ground with President Donald Trump to pass legislation next year, assuming the party flips that chamber in November.
Facing a blue wave, Republicans have found bipartisanship.
A new POLITICO poll shows that 66% of Republican voters this midterm want a Democratic House to find common ground with President Donald Trump to pass legislation next year, assuming the party flips that chamber in November.
Democrats don’t seem sold on the unity vibe. Almost the same percentage of Democratic voters want their party to block Trump and GOP proposals they disagree with, even if that means fewer bills get passed.
The GOP’s team-player spirit is also showing up in Republicans’ campaign messaging too — far more than in previous cycles.
Across all House and Senate races, GOP candidates or outside groups backing them have run nearly 200 ads that mention bipartisanship, working across the aisle or “both sides,” according to a POLITICO analysis of AdImpact data. That’s up more than 60% from 2024.
An ad from Michigan GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers says he’ll “bring both parties together” to lower prices. Iowa Rep. Zach Nunn told voters in an ad he is “one of the most bipartisan members of Congress.” And Arkansas Rep. French Hill is touting how the housing law he backed “passed with bipartisan support.”
The focus is a notable change from 2024. Back then, GOP candidates and groups ran more than 90 ads that promised to “stop Biden” or “stop Democrats.” That rhetoric is all but gone from GOP ads now.
Still, it remains to be seen if GOP lawmakers elected in November can collaborate with the different factions of the Democratic party that may be more — or less — willing to reach across the aisle.
Seventy-one percent of progressive voters, for example, indicated they would prefer Trump obstruction over finding common ground, compared to 57% of moderates, according to the polling. Progressives were also more likely to say Democrats’ highest priority if they retake the House should be doing everything they can to block Republicans’ agenda.
The one exception for Dems: affordability. Fifty-seven percent of Democratic midterm voters indicated they’d prefer the party do whatever it takes to pass legislation lowering the cost of living, even if it’d give the GOP a win — including 56% of progressive voters and 58% of moderates.
What else we’re watching:
— DEMS’ TREASURY TARGETS — Democrats are readying for a showdown with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent if they take back power in November. The Democrats who would lead the committees overseeing the Treasury Department and IRS are preparing to investigate Trump’s alleged self-enrichment schemes and efforts to dismantle regulatory agencies, according to people with direct knowledge of Democrats’ plans granted anonymity to describe them.
— WYDEN’S CLEAN ENERGY PLAN — Sen. Ron Wyden wants to bring back a clean energy tax credit program he says new data proves was wildly successful in helping keep down Americans’ energy expenses. The top Democrat on Senate Finance is releasing a report of IRS data, shared first with POLITICO, showing $2.5 billion in direct payments made in the first two years of the Democrats’ 2022 climate law to cover electric school buses, rooftop solar, electric vehicles and more. Wyden said he would revive the solar and wind tax credits if given the chance to chair the panel again, plus boost what’s known as the Direct Pay Program, which schools and tax exempt entities can use on clean energy infrastructure.
Original source: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/10/22/congress/kevin-mccarthy-house-lost-blame-01132183